According to Geoff Colvin it might be...
If you're trying to answer the question by looking at the traffic in the store I'm working in, the answer is a most resounding YES!
Geoff says;
"One of the most reliable ways to look like a business dope over the past several years has been to announce that the consumer spending party is finally over. Every year, usually in the fourth quarter, assorted boffins prove beyond doubt that U.S. consumers cannot possibly keep spending as they have been. Consumers then ignore those reports and keep right on spending anyway."
I've seen it many, many times. It always passes and we move on. This time may very well be different because it has carried over since the last Christmas season.
Despite the phony PR the marketing manager of one particular shopping mall put out there last year, the numbers were in and they fell short. The traffic, relative to all the Christmas's that I've seen, was extremely poor. So, there's a very real change that has been taking place for quite some time.
Consider;
"A consumer retrenchment may have even already started. Same-store sales at retail chains have dropped in recent weeks; overall retail sales have declined in real terms. Wal-Mart (Charts, Fortune 500) cut its profit forecast in August; in September, Target (Charts, Fortune 500) and Lowe's (Charts, Fortune 500) forecast weaker sales."
Now, allow me to throw a monkey wrench into this...
Geoff, have you considered how much online sales have risen? How much of an offset does that produce?
[picture found at CNN within Geoff's article]
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